Jim Berkland, a maverick geologist with 50 years experience including 6 years with the USGS and also as lead geologist for Santa Clara County in California has about an 80% success rate of predicting earthquakes. Jim had predicted a quake here [West Coast] during one of his current eight-day windows, which was open at the time of the interview. Since I am SO convinced of his accuracy, I did not even bother to verify if there was or was not a quake.
His usual prediction (and the same one I’d make) was for a “3.5 to 5.5 (or larger) temblor within 140 miles of Seattle, and/or Los Angeles within an 8-day window.” I don’t think he mentioned a scale during the March 2011 interview linked below, just the window duration. He seems to be indicating having noticed some kind of clockwise pattern pointing to the Western US or Mexico, and mentioned a special emphasis for increased probability as we got closer to the full moon on the 19th of March, 2011.
Jim’s March 2011 prediction was for a window open during March 19-26, and for a magnitude 3.5-7.0 earthquake quake centered within 140 miles of San Francisco. Jim made the same prediction for an EQ centered within 140 miles of Los Angeles, ditto for one centered in Washington or Oregon as well as a 7+ to occur somewhere on Earth and more probably on the Pacific Rim of Fire. I have not done follow-up to validate these predictions (been busy) though these represent his usual predictions.
You might find a copy of his book, The Man Who Predicts Earthquakes by Cal Orey via the Amazon link to the right.
During a recent radio interview on KFI 640 am radio in Los Angeles, the interviewer Bill Carroll scoffed at his making a prediction for so many locations to which Mr. Berkland pointed-out that 25% of his predictions fail. This tells me that 75% succeed.
What’s better, what’s worse? ~not preparing for a prediction that does happen, or ~preparing for one that does not occur?
Although the graphics and interruptions on the KFI interview are a distraction, one can pick-up some interesting information by listening past those problems, link button below.
There is a whole lot more to the story I’ll tell about Jim Berkland.
Meanwhile, watch and listen to these interviews conducted just after the Fukushima disaster.