Aug 5th, 2011
It occurred to me that I have been using threshold numbers generated by about half of one month, march. The averages for the last 147 days are Total: 39, Dogs: 23, Cats: 14, Birds: 1 and Other: 1. Two decades ago when we were using newspapers, to set a threshold we’d double the cat’s and triple the dog’s thresholds. Now that we are using an entirely different source for numbers, we may have to look over a year or two’s data –the animal counts and the qualifying earthquakes (3.5 to 5.5 within 140 miles and within 0-8 days)– to determine what the dogs and cats thresholds for Craigslist should be.
I am tempted to revise the thresholds, yet have decided not to right now.
After a year goes by, do a USGS search for all EQ w/in the area, then looks back over the numbers to determine new thresholds.
Since it’s a standard false alarm, perhaps the 4th of July effect could be a guide?
I also noticed that some of my spreadsheet formulas were not correct, and that some can’t even be valid until the end of the month. Made corrections, Re-posted charts (today the 7th)
Looks like we might have a little something between now and the full moon on the 13th.
The cats crossed the threshold on Aug 2 creating a window from the 2nd to the 10th. However, cats reached an even higher number on the 5th which extends the 0-8 day prediction window to the 13.
Again, I am not set certain of the Craigslist numbers as indicators. At the very least, we are using this as a vehicle to learn as we go about animal and other behaviors before an earthquake.
